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Lessons from the 2025 election
Where to start?
There are many lessons to be learned from Monday’s federal election.
One lesson that jumps out to me is there was only 2.1% difference between the Liberal vote and the Conservative vote. Both major parties received close to eight million votes. Both parties got well over 40% of the vote. My point is that there was one winner with 8.4 million votes, but 8 million other voters were committed to a different direction. Those voters still count and hopefully their concerns will be considered as the new government moves forward. We are all in this together.
Another lesson is how important a leader can be. Canadians eagerly elected Justin Trudeau in 2015, and then elected him two times more after that. Mr. Trudeau favoured a left-leaning focus.
Over the last year or so, enthusiasm for this approach declined significantly. This time, Canadians wanted a new candidate with a different perspective.
When Mark Carney was nominated as Liberal leader, the change was like whiplash. The Liberals went from 25 points behind to a neck and neck race. Such a reversal has never happened before. I have always described Canadian politics as a highway with guardrails. Canadian voters will allow parties to go a little to the left or a little to the right, but voters want governments to stay between the guardrails. When a party goes too far to the left voters will turf them in the next election. If a party goes too far to the right, same thing.
When I was first elected as a Progressive Conservative, both major parties were centrist parties, with policies that often overlapped. At times, I felt Brian Mulroney was more liberal than the Liberals, and Jean Chrétien or Paul Martin more conservative than the Conservatives. But generally, they both governed from the middle… between the guardrails. If the Conservatives want to form government again, they will need to find a way back to that middle ground. Several successful Progressive Conservative provincial parties have already proven this approach works.
After the Reform Party absorbed the Progressive Conservative Party in 2003, Stephen Harper invited me to dinner seeking my support for his leadership goals. We had not adopted a new name for the new amalgamated party, and we had not chosen a new leader.
During dinner, I said, “I hope that we can keep the word progressive in the name of the new party.” Mr. Harper responded, “Oh oh… I do not like that word Progressive.” His message was clear, and the dinner went downhill from there, but that is another story.
Speaking of leaders, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has announced that he will step down as leader of the NDP. After watching him for many years in the House of Commons and in the media, he has a lot to be proud of. He and his caucus have constantly raised issues that should be raised. He has been able to push the government to adopt measures that might not have happened. He was always credible and respectful and worked at his job tirelessly.
So now we start a new chapter in the life of Canada. Our once trusted best friend and largest trading partner has chosen a different direction, and we now need to explore new relationships and trade agreements with countries not normally on our trading list.
We need to maximize our internal trade and build on our incredible resources. All levels of government will be drawn into this effort, and I believe that there will be a positive and exciting outcome.
Although it is a minority government, I do not see another election anytime soon.
There are many lessons to be learned from Monday’s federal election.
One lesson that jumps out to me is there was only 2.1% difference between the Liberal vote and the Conservative vote. Both major parties received close to eight million votes. Both parties got well over 40% of the vote. My point is that there was one winner with 8.4 million votes, but 8 million other voters were committed to a different direction. Those voters still count and hopefully their concerns will be considered as the new government moves forward. We are all in this together.
Another lesson is how important a leader can be. Canadians eagerly elected Justin Trudeau in 2015, and then elected him two times more after that. Mr. Trudeau favoured a left-leaning focus.
Over the last year or so, enthusiasm for this approach declined significantly. This time, Canadians wanted a new candidate with a different perspective.
When Mark Carney was nominated as Liberal leader, the change was like whiplash. The Liberals went from 25 points behind to a neck and neck race. Such a reversal has never happened before. I have always described Canadian politics as a highway with guardrails. Canadian voters will allow parties to go a little to the left or a little to the right, but voters want governments to stay between the guardrails. When a party goes too far to the left voters will turf them in the next election. If a party goes too far to the right, same thing.
When I was first elected as a Progressive Conservative, both major parties were centrist parties, with policies that often overlapped. At times, I felt Brian Mulroney was more liberal than the Liberals, and Jean Chrétien or Paul Martin more conservative than the Conservatives. But generally, they both governed from the middle… between the guardrails. If the Conservatives want to form government again, they will need to find a way back to that middle ground. Several successful Progressive Conservative provincial parties have already proven this approach works.
After the Reform Party absorbed the Progressive Conservative Party in 2003, Stephen Harper invited me to dinner seeking my support for his leadership goals. We had not adopted a new name for the new amalgamated party, and we had not chosen a new leader.
During dinner, I said, “I hope that we can keep the word progressive in the name of the new party.” Mr. Harper responded, “Oh oh… I do not like that word Progressive.” His message was clear, and the dinner went downhill from there, but that is another story.
Speaking of leaders, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has announced that he will step down as leader of the NDP. After watching him for many years in the House of Commons and in the media, he has a lot to be proud of. He and his caucus have constantly raised issues that should be raised. He has been able to push the government to adopt measures that might not have happened. He was always credible and respectful and worked at his job tirelessly.
So now we start a new chapter in the life of Canada. Our once trusted best friend and largest trading partner has chosen a different direction, and we now need to explore new relationships and trade agreements with countries not normally on our trading list.
We need to maximize our internal trade and build on our incredible resources. All levels of government will be drawn into this effort, and I believe that there will be a positive and exciting outcome.
Although it is a minority government, I do not see another election anytime soon.